| （School of Physical Education，Chongqing Normal University，Chongqing 400047，China） Abstract: Based on data acquired in 4 physical check-ups performed on nationwide students at the ages of 7 to 18 between 1985 and 2005, the author predicted the expectation values for nationwide student physical stamina devel-opment in the next period to come by using the GM (1, 1) modeling method in the grey system theory. Main results: 1) In the next period to come, the speed of deterioration of Chinese students’ strength capacity as well as physical stamina capacity closely related to it can be slowed down as expected; their stamina capacity will continue to dete-riorate and such deterioration tends to happen to younger students; 2) aiming at how to develop and enhance stu-dents’ physical stamina capacity, the author put forward the following intervention measures: on the one hand, the guiding function of physical education examinations should be further exerted; on the other hand, elementary school physical education teaching and sports safety education should be strengthened continuously.
Key words: student physical stamina capacity；physical fitness of students to monitor；grey system theory；China |
